I'm actually interested in the study of tiers and match-ups and competitive viability in competitive fighting games. It's something I have to be aware of, especially as a low-tier main. I actually tend to pick overlooked or unviable characters in most fighters I play; Bowser and Ganondorf in Brawl, Zangief in Super Street Fighter II Turbo, and Q in Third Strike, all of whom are low or bottom tier. Of course, I'm also aware from personal experience that it's very easy to get counter-picked as a low tier. Almost every tournament I went to as Bowser, someone would counter-pick Dedede after I beat them in the first match. I could beat Meta-Knight, Snake, Marth, Lucario, and other high tiers, because Bowser actually only moderately loses to them, but anytime someone picked Dedede, even if they rarely used the character, it was practically an auto-loss. That's because Dedede has an infinite chaingrab on Bowser in addition to just being able to easily walk him across the stage with his normal chain-grab for like, ungodly percentages of damage. The match-up is considered 80-20, so it's virtually unwinnable. Unfortunately it has very little to do with player skill, because the mechanism that allows Dedede to win is stupidly easy to do.
I do believe in the synergy between player and character, but of course that only goes so far. It's really all about match-ups, the character usage in the tournament, and the bracket you get. The greatest Ganondorf players in Brawl history have never won a Brawl tournament, for example, and rarely place well in major tournaments, simply because Ganon has such godawful match-ups. Meta-Knight, who is far and away the most used character, absolutely destroys Ganon, it's nearly unwinnable.
Granted, a Ganon can get lucky in a given tournament and face characters with whom he goes fairly even. It's not likely he'll only get Bowser and Falcon and other low tiers like that, but it's possible he'll play Wario, Snake, Wolf, or other characters he has a chance against. Ganon's problem is that he has so few winnable match-ups that this is extremely unlikely. So the match-ups are definitely important, as is character usage, which contributes to a general tier list. That's just a reality tournament players have to deal with.
Of course, with players of varying skill, any character can conceivably beat another character. But with players of equal skill, the innate advantages and disadvantages in match-up more heavily come into play, because both players are aware of the options and shortcomings of each character. This is reflected in tournament statistics. Unfortunately, Brawl is a particularly unbalanced game, so Ganon has only won one significant tournament that I know of, and it was considered a miracle, whereas Meta-Knight has won countless. Even Ness, who is mid-tier, rarely places well in regional events, and almost never places in major national tournaments. He actually has it a little easier than Bowser, but a good Marth or Donkey Kong are almost impossible for him if they know the match-up. He does actually have a good match-up with Meta-Knight, though, which is very valuable and rare for a mid-tier character in Brawl.
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